Mktviews Weekly Techno-Funda Analysis (10/12/2012 - 14/12/2012)

Markets have ended the week with nominal gains on a weekly basis on account of Short-Covering & selective buying at lower levels on account of Government winning FDI vote in both houses of parliament as well as crude softening to 107-108$ per barrel. 

Key benchmark indices Nifty & Sensex have ended the week advancing by 0.5% while BSE small-cap & mid-cap stocks remained the flavors of the week with their respective indices out-performing as they gained 2.4% each. 

Though all sectors except IT ended with gains, Realty, Oil & Gas proved to be out-performers as they amassed gains of 5% & 3% respectively followed by Metal, Power , Banking & Capital Goods gaining to the tune of 1-2%. 

 

FDI in retail has become the reality of the day on account of the Govt defeating the no-confidence vote both in Lok-Sabha & Rajya Sabha with the support of SP & BSP. 

This victory will not only lead to significant capital inflows, thereby benifitting the economy & country's GDP but will also allow the Government to press ahead with its agenda on introducing some key important economic reforms. 

On the macro front, IIP data for the month of October would be announced on 12 December 2012. 

Also on Friday, WPI Inflation data for the month of November 2012 would be unveiled. 

For the month of September 2012, IIP data had slumped to -0.4% while WPI Inflation had eased upto 7.45% in October 2012.  

RBI is scheduled to announce its mid-quarter monetary policy review on 18th Dec 2012. Although the RBI Governor in his last monetary policy has categorically stated that he may not act on Interest rates until January 2013 policy meet. 

But given that the government has been able to move ahead with reforms post winning FDI vote & few more reform measures on the anvil along with Crude & Rupee both having stabilized, it would be a pleasant surprise & favorable for Market Sentiment if RBI Governor agrees to reduce Interest Rates by even a token 25 bps. 

On the Global Front, 

The continuing impasse over the looming fiscal cliff in US has remained in focus. However US Markets have been stable as the possiblity of the US fiscal cliff finding a solution has increased. 

Sentiment in the European markets have also improved after Greece said that it would spend 10 billion to buy back bonds in a bid to reduce its ballooning debt & unfreeze long delayed aid. 

Oil prices have cooled down a bit to 107-108$ with ECB indicating that growth in the Eurozone would shrink further next year. 

FII's were net buyers in the Cash Segment but have turned net sellers in the derivatives segment. The Short positions in derivatives segment could taken as a hedge against the Cash Positions. FII's have pumped in Rs 1,05,000 Crores in the Calender year till 3rd December & this is likely to keep market sentiment upbeat. 

DII's on the other hand were net sellers for the 7th consecutive week. 

FII Weekly Cumulative Derivatives Stats : 

Index Futures : -380 Cr; 

Index Options : +95 Cr; 

Stock Futures : -1230 Cr; 

Stock Options : -325 Cr; 

Cash Segment : 

FII : +3207 Cr; 

DII : -2873 Cr. 

On the Derivatives Front, 

Nifty PCR OI has decreased from 1.11 to 1.05 levels with significant additions witnessed in 5900-6100 Calls as well as 5800-6000 Puts & unwinding in 5700 & 5800 Calls with highest OI recorded in 6000 Calls as well as 5800 Puts suggesting a near term trading range of 5832-6040.  

Nifty has witnessed a sharp upmove from 5550 levels to 5980 levels i.e 430 points in a span of 2-3 weeks. Hence it may take a breather around 5830-5980 band, pause for a while & then extend this current uptrend towards 6120-6150 zone. 

Technically,  

On the weekly charts, we have witnessed a break-out from "Downward Sloping Trend-Line" joining 2 important swing tops of 5971 (April 2011) & 5843 (Oct 2012). 

The low of the pattern i.e 5835-5840 band may provide good support going forward. 

On Daily & weekly Charts, RSI & Stochastics is placed in overbought zone. However MACD is still paced above its respective average on daily charts. 

Nifty Futures have strong support at 5832-5845 area & Till 5832 holds, the current rally could extend upto 6030-6045 levels. 

Only a decisive cross over of 6045 with volumes would lead to more momentum, resulting in further short-covering & fresh buying which could lead the index all the way upto 6150/6180 area. 

If 6045 is not crossed, we expect Nifty Futures to oscillate between 5832-6045 range. 

But a breach of the support 5832 could lead the index to drift to lower levels of 5748/5688. 

Regards,
Team Market View Investments. 
Mo : 9987750901. 
Visit www.mktviews-nifty50.blogspot.com
Facebook : www.facebook.com/mktviews. 

Never Forget : There are no Speed Limits on the Road to Excellence !!!

Caveat :
Investing in Stock markets carries high risk and hence Professional should be consulted before taking any investment decision / call. The inputs presented here are for information purpose and are not buy or sell recommendations to any individual or to any groups. 

Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions. 

Mktviews Weekly Techno-Funda Analysis (12/11/2012 - 16/11/2012)

Markets are crucially poised after closing with a nominal loss on a weekly basis as it witnessed selling pressure on all rises on A/c of disappointing SBI results, pressure on rupee, fiscal cliff worries arising from US as well as Eurozone growth concerns resurfacing once again. 

Key benchmark indices Nifty & Sensex have displayed resilience vis-a-vis Global Markets as they ended with nominal loss of 0.3% respectively while BSE small-cap & mid-cap index under performed by declining 0.75%. 

Sector-wise Realty & FMCG registered gains of 4.8% & 1.9% respectively and have outperformed the markets followed by Pharma, Auto & Banking which just managed to barely close in positive as they gained by 0.2-0.5%. 

Once again Capital Goods sector witnessed highest cut to the tune of 2.2% as profit booking was witnessed in LT, Bhel and other infrastructure companies. Oil & gas as well as Metal Sector too witnessed 2% cuts each on account of poor quarterly results announced by ONGC, Hindalco & Tata Steel. 

Even IT Sector fell by 1% despite Rupee weakening upto 54.8 levels. 

Q2 Corporate results announced so far has been on a mixed note. The main worrying factor is the increase in NPA woes amongst PSU Banking space. It poses a serious question mark over the credit quality of the assets held by PSU Banks. 

Though SBI have reported a rise of 30% in Net Profit for Quarter ended September 2012 on a/c of lower provisions for bad loans & treasure gains, it has been an overall disappointment with issues of lower margin & deteriorating asset quality worries weighing higher with NPA's rising to 5.15% from 4.99% a quarter earlier. 

The Cabinet Committee for Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved proposals of divestment of 10% equity in Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) out of 100% Government holding through IPO in domestic market. 

This disinvestment is likely to take place in the next fiscal year & hence may not be accounted in the present budgeted disinvestment target of Rs 30000 Cr. 

So far, CCEA has approved sale of shares in Hindustan Copper, Sail, Bhel, Oil India Ltd, MMTC, Nalco, RINL & NMDC for disinvestment purpose, but none of the share sale has been able to go through. 

Even 12.5% stake sale in Nalco which was scheduled in the coming month has been deferred by the Government. 

Thus, it would be very crucial to see, despite these deferrals, How would the Government mop-up Rs 12000-13000 Cr which it targets till December End. 

On the macro front, IIP data would be announced on Monday, 12 November 2012 for the month of September 2012. 

Also on Wednesday, WPI Inflation data for the month of October 2012 would be unveiled. 

For the month of August 2012, IIP data had grown by 2.7%. 

WPI Inflation had shot upto 7.81% in September 2012 to a 10-Month high on account of the steep diesel price hike. 

Global risk-off sentiment has led Rupee to weaken & close at its 2 month lows of 54.79 which inturn has been sentimentally negative for the Equity Markets. 

The fall in Rupee was also partially due to RBI Governer's remark that RBI would not support the Rupee by selling US Dollars in open market & it rather prefers to leave the Rupee to float free on its own strength. 

Globally, 

US Markets remained volatile with a negative bias. Even though uncertainty of US Presidential election has ended with Barack Obama being re-elected as President for 2nd term, the solution to the lingering concerns over the fiscal cliff issues & probable tax increase as a result of that weighed on the US & all other Global Markets. 

Also, Concerns over Eurozone Growth worries have resurfaced again with Mario Draghi stating that Eurozone Economy would remain weak in the near term. 

Also European Commission has stated that Eurozone economy would virtually grind to a halt next year on A/c of debt crisis & 17 Nation Euro Economy would expand 0.1% in 2013 down from its May forecast of 1% & also cut forecast for Germany, Europe's largest economy to 0.8% from 1.7% estimated earlier. 

Last Week, as advised, Failure to cross the critical resistance level of 22350 by HangSeng led to a profit booking exactly upto 21300 levels. Also Dow Jones violated its crucial support level of 13020 & closed around 12815 levels post falling exactly upto our given level of 12,736 (Low 12,743). 

Going Forward, 

Dow Jones post a sell-off last week faces critical resistance around 12996-13020. Till it does not cross 13020, it could face selling pressure on every rise & could possibly revisit 12,300-12,400 support zone. 

Major Asian Index Hang Seng trading near 21,380 has given a downward break-down in daily charts with all technical indicators RSI, Stochastics & MACD signalling a negative cross-over. Small support lies around 21,260 levels, violation of it would mean more pain in the short-term upto 20727/20415. Only if support 21,260 is held, small pullback upto 21500/21720 could be witnessed.  

FII's were net buyers in the Cash Segment but were net sellers in Derivatives Segment while DII's on the other hand were net sellers for the third consecutive week. 

FII Weekly Cumulative Derivatives Stats : 

Index Futures : -1071 Cr; 

Index Options : -1145 Cr; 

Stock Futures : -745 Cr; 

Stock Options : -325 Cr; 

Cash Segment : 

FII : +1333 Cr; 

DII : -831  Cr. 

On the Derivatives Front, 

Nifty PCR OI has decreased from 1.09 to 1.06 levels with significant additions witnessed in 5800-6000 Calls as well as 5600-5800 Puts with highest OI recorded in 5800 Calls as well as 5600 Puts suggesting a near term trading range of 5646-5812. 

Indian Indices have been resilient so far as they have managed to escape with a cut of 0.2% when Global Markets have witnessed cuts anywhere between 3-4%. 

Technically, Markets have formed a Doji-Star like pattern on weekly charts displaying indecisiveness amongst the market participants. 

Nifty Futures traded in a narrow trading range of 2% i.e 5702-5818 for the entire week with a zig-zag movement.

Even on Daily Charts, Momentum Oscillators RSI & Stochastics have signalled a negative crossover while MACD is on the verge of signalling a negative crossover, which could be confirmed on a breakdown below 5646 with volumes.  

Though Nifty Futures have taken multiple supports around 5720-5730 area, it is witnessing selling pressure on all rises & every upmove has been embraced by strong supply from higher levels indicating the inability to sustain at higher levels. 

What has happened till now was consolidation at higher levels with a negative bias but a breach of 5646 would accelerate the downward momentum leading to lower levels upto 5568/5510. 

Nifty Futures would face critical resistance @ 5796-5812 zone. Only a cross-over above 5812 with strong volumes would enable a pullback upto 5910/5970 zone. 

Probable Trading Range for the coming week : 5646-5812 

A Special Mahurat Trading Session will be held on Tuesday, 13 November 2012 from 3.45 PM to 4.30 PM to mark the beginning of the new Samvat 2069. The Market will remain closed on Wednesday, 14 November 2012 on account of Diwali. 

  Wish You and Your Family a Very Happy, Prosperous & a Profitable New Year Ahead. 

Regards,
Team Market View Investments. 
Mo : 9987750901. 
Visit www.mktviews-nifty50.blogspot.com
Facebook : www.facebook.com/mktviews. 

Never Forget : There are no Speed Limits on the Road to Excellence !!!

Caveat :
Investing in Stock markets carries high risk and hence Professional should be consulted before taking any investment decision / call. The inputs presented here are for information purpose and are not buy or sell recommendations to any individual or to any groups. 

Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.

Mktviews Weekly Techno-Funda Analysis (05/11/2012 - 09/11/2012)

Markets have closed with nominal gains on a weekly basis on account of Short-Covering & selective buying at lower levels despite getting pegged back in initial first half of the week due to RBI holding key interest rates steady as against an expectation of a rate cut.

Key benchmark indices Nifty & Sensex have ended the week advancing by 0.7% while BSE small-cap & mid-cap index under performed by rising only 0.3%.

Sector-wise Auto amassed highest gains to the tune of 3.9% on account of their higher monthly sales volume while Pharma & IT advanced with 2-3% gains on A/c of Rupee depreciating to 54 levels once again.
Capital Goods sector witnessed highest cut to the tune of 1.9% followed by FMCG & Banking which declined by 0.5-0.7% each.

RBI in its Q2FY13 Monetary Policy review reduced the CRR by token 25 bps from 4.5% to 4.25% while keeping Repo & Reverse Repo unchanged. Lowering CRR would infuse Rs 17000 Cr into the Financial System.
Meanwhile, RBI has raised the provisioning requirements for restructured loans to 2.75% from 2% earlier which may impact the profitability of banks in short term but would lead to improvement of Balance Sheet's health over the longer time frame.
By holding key interest rates steady, RBI has re-iterated that managing inflation remains its top most priority while raising concerns over growth trajectory.

Finance Minister P Chidambaram unveiled a 5-year roadmap for fiscal consolidation to promote investments, control rising inflation & put India back on the growth path. He also revised the budget deficit target for FY13 to 5.3% of GDP as against the budgeted target of 5.1% of GDP.
Some important measures announced by the Finance Minister include a transition to GST, quick review of DTC before its introduction & passing in the Parliament, meeting its budgeted disinvestment target of Rs 30,000 Cr for the fiscal & raising Rs 40,000 crore from sale of spectrum.
Finance Minister also emphasized that the Government is determined to address the twin challenges of Current Account deficit & fiscal deficit.

Rupee has once again weakened upto 54 levels following volatility in Global markets as well as owing to RBI holding key interest rates steady. If rupee continues its weakness & breaches 54.45 levels, it could slide all the way back upto 56 zone. Else would be range bound between 52.85-54.45 zone.

Globally,
US markets were shut on Monday & Tuesday as the super storm Sandy hit through North Eastern USA.
US markets gained momentum on Thursday on A/c of bullish consumer confidence & encouraging employment data but got pegged back on Friday's session due to uncertainty ahead of the US Presidential Elections.
Investors will closely watch the US Presidential Election which is scheduled for Tuesday, 6 Nov 2012 that will decide the Global Market trend in Future.

Dow Jones trading around 13090 is very close to its crucial support zone of 13020-13030. If 13020 is held, can bounce back upto 13450-13500. If support 13020 is violated, trend would turn negative for short term & retest of 12736-12550 would be imminent.

Major Asian Index Hang Seng trading near 22100 has key resistance at 22350.
Above 22350, can give an upmove upto 23700/24000 levels.
Technical Indicators RSI & MACD are approaching overbought zone & hence If 22350 does not cross, can lead to profit booking upto 21,300 levels.


FII's were net buyers in the Cash as well as Derivatives Segment while DII's on the other hand were net sellers for the second consecutive week.

FII Weekly Cumulative Derivatives Stats :
Index Futures : +111 Cr;
Index Options : +4109 Cr;
Stock Futures : +426 Cr;
Stock Options : -192 Cr;

Cash Segment :
FII : +697 Cr;
DII : -631 Cr.


On the Derivatives Front,
Nifty PCR OI has increased from 1.07 to 1.09 levels with significant additions witnessed in 5700-6000 Calls as well as 5500-5700 Puts with highest OI recorded in 5900 Calls as well as 5600 Puts suggesting a near term trading range of 5610-5832.

Technically,
Nifty Futures have strong support at 5610-5620 area which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level of the entire upmove from 5240 to 5840 & Index have taken multiple support from this zone & bounced back to 5720 zone.
Till 5610 holds, it can once again move upto 5830-5842 levels.
Only on decisive cross over of 5842 with volumes, this current uptrend could get more momentum & can go all the way upto 5900/5955 area.
If 5842 is not crossed, we expect Nifty Futures to oscillate between 5610-5842 range.
But a breach of the support 5610 could lead the index to drift to lower levels of 5530/5470.




Regards,
Team Market View Investments.
Mo : 9987750901.
Visit : www.mktviews-nifty50.blogspot.com
Facebook : www.facebook.com/mktviews.

Never Forget : There are no Speed Limits on the Road to Excellence !!!

Caveat :
Investing in Stock markets carries high risk and hence Professional should be consulted before taking any investment decision / call. The inputs presented here are for information purpose and are not buy or sell recommendations to any individual or to any groups.

Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.

Mktviews Daily Market View 26 Oct

Markets have opened on a negative note in line with its Asian Peers. 
Going Fwd, If Nifty Fut holds 5688-5693,it can move up till 5746-5754 area. 
Further upside upto 5784/5809 only if crosses & sustains abv 5754. 

If does not cross 5754, then will trade rangebound between 5688 - 5754.
Weakness will be witnessed upto 5665/5650 if breaks & sustains below 5688. 

Key Supports : 5688 & 5665. Resistance : 5732 & 5754. Probable Trading Range : 5665-5754.

Regards,
Team Market View Investments.
 9987750901.
Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 18/10/2012

Index Futures : +35.69 Cr,
Index Options : +6 Cr,
Stock Futures : +45 Cr,
Stock Options : +2.14 Cr

Cash Market :
FII : - 69 Cr,
DII : -184 Cr.


Source : NSE INDIA

Regards,
Team Market View Investments.
9987750901.

Mktviews Weekly Techno-Funda Analysis (15/10/2012 - 19/10/2012)

Despite significant improvement in IIP data, Market have ended its 5 week winning streak & sentiment got dampened following disappointing earnings guidance by Infosys, High crude prices, Weak trade data, unimpressive inflation data & & fragile global markets causing Nifty to shed 1.3%. 

Key Benchmark indices Nifty & Sensex declined by 1.4% each while BSE Small-Cap & Mid-Cap indices outperformed as they fell only by 0.5% & 0.2% respectively. 

All High Beta Sectorial indices ended in Red with the highest damage caused to Realty sector to the tune of 4% following selling pressure on DLF post Arvind Kejriwal exposing Robert Vadra's business deals/nexus with DLF & IT sector declined by 3% due to Infosys which witnessed a 5% cut. 

Oil & Gas, Cap Goods, Metal, Auto & Power sectors also followed suit by declining anywhere between 2-3%. 

Though these are early days as the earnings season has just been flagged off but it has been mixed amongst those announced so far. 

Infosys disappointed the street on Lower Earnings guidance while HDFC Bank continued to announce robust numbers based on strong growth & NII. 

It seems Infosys is fast losing its IT bellwether status as continouosly from the last 5 quarters, it is delivering weak numbers way lower than the guidance given earlier. 

In the coming week, Nifty heavy-weights Reliance Industries, Axis bank, HCL Tech, ACC, TCS, ITC & Bajaj Auto would be announcing their quarterly results & it would have an significant impact on the market sentiment. 

IIP data announced for the month of August 2012 has shown a significant improvement. 

IIP has grown by 2.7% in August 2012 compared to 3.4% yoy & consensus of 1% on account of Turnaround in Manufacturing sector, expansion in mining sector, consumer durables as well as non-durables. 

Retail inflation (CPI) moderated to 9.73% in September from 10% in August.  

However sell-off was witnessed post announcement of the data on fears that the Central Bank may not aggressively cut rates as Inflation figures at 9.73% though below 10% continued to remain at elevated levels.  

Trade Data announced on Thursday has been very disappointing for the 5th straight month as India's exports fell by 11% in September to US $ 23.7 bn while Imports rose by 5.1% to US $ 41.7 bn resulting in a rise in trade deficit from US $ 13.19 bn to US $ 18.08 bn. 

S&P has once again re-iterated that there was a significant chance of downgrading India's credit rating further incase already announced measures are not quickly implemented. 

The IMF has slashed India's growth forecast for CY2012 to as low as 4.9% on account of adverse impact of factors like slow approval for new projects, lack of structural reforms, high interest rates & slowing external demand. 

Also, The World Bank has lowered its real GDP growth forecast for the Indian economy to 6% as compared to its earlier estimate of 6.9%. 

On the global front, the undercurrent remained negative on account of IMF slashing its global growth forecast to 3.3% & warned of further problems if the fiscal mess in Europe & US is not addressed immediately. 

The World bank has even lowered China's growth forecast to 7.7% from 8.2% earlier this fiscal on account of slowing economic growth driven by weaker exports as well as domestic demand. 

On the Derivatives front, 

The outlook for the coming week remains bearish as PCR has dropped to 0.98 levels with significant additions in OI in 5700-5900 CE as well as 5500-5600 PE. Some unwinding has been observed in 5700 & 5800 put during the last week. 

Technical indicators RSI as well as MACD are signalling negative crossover implying that a further decline is on cards. 

Crucial Resistance area of 5750-5760 could prove too stiff for fulls and selling pressure could be witnessed on all rises. 

If 5760 is not crossed, we expect Nifty Futures to oscillate between 5616-5760 range. 

Nifty Futures have strong support at 5616-5620 area & breach of 5616 could lead the index to drift to lower levels of 5535/5480. 

Only on decisive cross over of 5760 with volumes, this current uptrend could get more momentum & can go all the way upto 5850/5915 area.  

Regards, Team Market View Investments.
9987750901.
Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.