Mktviews Weekly Nifty Analysis (30/04/2012 - 04/05/2012)

Markets are crucially poised after closing 2% negative on a weekly basis post sentiment being weakened on a/c of S & P threatening to cut India's Long term rating & TRAI's proposal of 13-fold increase in the base price for auctioning of 2G waves. 

Key indices Sensex & Nifty declined by 1.38% & 1.89% apiece respectively for the week while mid-caps & small-caps under-performed by 2.76% & 2.94% respectively compared to last week. Sector-wise IT was top gainer while those proving laggards were Realty, Banking, Metal and Capital Goods. 

Global credit agency S&P on wednesday revised its outlook on India's long term credit rating to negative from stable citing a slowdown in investment & economic growth & widening of current account deficit and has resulted in weaker medium term credit outlook. 

Also the negative sentiment was further bolstered by TRAI which announced proposal for hiking the base price for auctioning of 2G waves by 13-Fold leading to almost all telecom stocks plumetting.  

Market participants would continue to focus on the ongoing quarterly result announcements. Hindustan Unilever unveils its result on 1 May while Bharti Airtel & Hero Motors would announce their results on 2nd may with newest inclusion in Nifty50 i.e bank of Baroda announce to set its results on 4th May. 

Keep an eye on Automobile as well as Cement stocks as companies from these sectors will unveil monthly sales data for April 2012 from 2nd May 2012. 

FII flows have turned weaker in the Last 45 days after strong inflow for 3 months between 15 Dec 2011 & 15 March 2012 post GAAR issue & Vodafone Tax case. FII's have invested hardly close to 5000 Cr from 15/03/2012 till date compared to total investment of Rs 45000 Cr between Dec 15, 2011 to March 15, 2012. 

European Markets remained weaker throughout the week on the back of weaker cues on A/c of prevailing political worries coupled with dismal manufacturing data flowing from China & Euro-Zone. Germany's PMI data shrank at the fastest pace in nearly 3 years in April by falling sharply to 46.4 from 48.3 levels signaling growth slowdown in the economic activity. On the contrary, US markets displayed resilience on a/c of stronger than expected quarterly corporate earnings & upbeat housing data. 

INR has weakened tremendously & have been hitting fresh 3 monthly lows @ 52.8 levels. Any slide below 53 would lead to sharp sell-off further in currency as well as other asset classes. 

Currently, Nifty Futures are facing selling pressure on all rises & distribution patterns are visible on higher levels. Avoid bottom fishing as further fall is likely. 

Nifty Futures faces stiff resistance around 5339-5358 levels. Unless Nifty Futures manages to cross & sustain above 5358, Nifty Futures would oscillate & trade rangebeound between 5148-5358. 

Only if 5358 is crossed & sustained with huge volumes, further pullback upto 5475/5535 would be witnessed. 

Strong support zone for Nifty Futures lies @ 5148-5156. Any decisive breach of 5148 with volumes would result in capitulation upto 5065/4968 levels. 

Regards,
Team Market View Investments. 
Mo : 9987750901. 
Visit www.mktviews-nifty50.blogspot.com
Facebook : www.facebook.com/mktviews. 

Never Forget : There are no Speed Limits on the Road to Excellence !!!

Caveat :
Investing in Stock markets carries high risk and hence Professional should be consulted before taking any investment decision / call. The inputs presented here are for information purpose and are not buy or sell recommendations to any individual or to any groups. 

Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.

Mktviews Daily Market View 25 Apr 2012

 Expect Markets to open on a subdued Note. 

Post opening, till Nifty futures holds 5201, it can move up maximum till 5253-5260 area. 
Further upside upto 5298/5323 only if crosses & sustains abv 5265. 
If does not cross 5260, then will face selling pressure on all rises & trade rangebound between 5201 - 5260. 
Further Weakness will be witnessed upto 5168/5142 if breaks & sustains below 5201. 

Key Supports : 5201 & 5168. 
Resistance : 5260 & 5296. 
Probable Trading Range : 5168-5296.  

Regards, Team Market View Investments. 9987750901.
 Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.

Mktviews Daily Market View 24 Apr

Expect Markets to open on a positive Note. 

Rupee falling to 52.5 levels would add further pressure on the bourses. 

Post opening, till Nifty fut holds 5168, can move up maximum till critical resistance zone of 5228-5236. 

Further upside upto 5268/5290 only if crosses &sustains abv 5236.

If does not cross 5236, then will face selling pressure on all rises & trade rangebound 5168 - 5236. 

Further Weakness will be witnessed upto 5132/5110 if breaks & sustains below 5168. 

Key Supports : 5168 & 5132. 

Resistance : 5236 & 5266. 

Probable Trading Range : 5132-5266

Regards, Team Market View Investments. 9987750901. 
Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.

Mktviews Daily Market View 23/4/2012

Expect Mkts to open flat to negative in-line with global mkts.
Post opening, If Nifty Fut holds 5265, it can move up till 5335-5340 area.
Further upside upto 5380/5423 only if crosses & sustains abv 5340.
If does not cross 5340, then will trade rangebound between 5265 - 5340.
Weakness will be witnessed upto 5229/5192 if breaks & sustains below support 5265.

Key Supports : 5265 & 5243.
Resistance : 5335 & 5359.
Probable Trading Range : 5243-5359
 

Regards,
Team Market View Investments.
Mo : 9987750901.
Visit www.mktviews-nifty50.blogspot.com
Facebook : www.facebook.com/mktviews.

Mktviews Weekly Nifty Analysis (23/04/2012 - 27/04/2012)

 

Markets are crucially poised after closing 1.6% positive on a weekly basis post rangebound trading admist high volatility on a/c of sharper than expected rate cut by RBI in its monetary policy announced on 17 April 2012. 

Key indices surged 1.6% for the week while mid-caps & small-caps gained 1.4% & 1.26% compared to last week. Sector-wise Auto, Metal & FMCG remained top gainers while those on the losing side were Oil & Gas, Power and Capital Goods. 

RBI in its monetary policy on 17th April 2012 announced a sharper than expected repo cut of 50 bps, a first cut after 13 successive hikes in past 18 months. 

However few riders were attached to this rate cut which did not allow the markets to rise in a gung-ho manner. RBI governer announced that scope for any further rate cuts is limited on account of inflationary as well as fiscal deficit concerns. He also stated that further cut in interest rates will depend on the macro economic factors which must improve from the current levels. 

 

Global markets have painted a mixed picture post mixed economic data from US as well as positive outlook for the world economy by IMF. Also 

successful bond auctions from France & Spain lent support to the European Markets. 

 

Corporate Results announced so far have been fairly good with HCL Tech, HDFC Bank, Yes Bank all in-line with market expectations. 

With Important Results like  TCS, Sesa Goa, Wipro, Sterlite, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Jindal Steel & Maruti due next week and F&O expiry on Thursday, 

Movements are likely to be volatile & markets may break-out of the frustrating range of 5190-5370. 

 

India's trade deficit hit a record new high worsening the external balances & further weakening of the rupee which has slipped for the 3rd consecutive week to 3-Month lows of levels as low as Rs 52.07 compared to Rs 51.35 a week earlier registering a fall of 1.45%. 

 

With Rupee weakening, pending fuel reforms & controversy surrounding the GAAR still remaining a major overhang, the chances of upside remains limited and thus capped. 

 

Nifty Future is displaying reluctance to cross & sustain above 5390 or even break 5185 as selling pressure is witnessed on all rises & buying support emerging at lower levels resulting in Nifty to oscillate between 5200-5400 range with highest OI built up in 5400 Call Option & 5200 as well as 5100 Put Option. 

Use any pullback upto 5380-5395 to reduce your Long positions as bouts of selling pressure would be witnessed on all rises. If 5410 is not crossed & sustained, then it may only be a pullback & not a bullback. 

 

Going Forward,

If Nifty Future fails to cross above 5410, will trade in the range 5184-5410. 

Strong support lies @ 5185-5195 & selling pressure would intensify upto 5060/4937 only if Nifty Fut breaches & closes below 5184. 

Further upside upto 5538/5610 would be witnessed only if critical resistance area of 5395-5410  is crossed & Nifty Futures closes above it. 

 

Regards,
Team Market View Investments. 
Mo : 9987750901. 
Visit www.mktviews-nifty50.blogspot.com
Facebook : www.facebook.com/mktviews. 

Never Forget : There are no Speed Limits on the Road to Excellence !!!

Caveat :
Investing in Stock markets carries high risk and hence Professional should be consulted before taking any investment decision / call. The inputs presented here are for information purpose and are not buy or sell recommendations to any individual or to any groups. 

Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions. 

Mktviews Daily Nifty View 17/04/2012

Nifty has opened on a flat to negative note. 
Post opening, Nifty fut can move up till 5252-5263 area. 

Further upsideupto 5292/5312 only if crosses & sustains abv 5263. 
If does not cross 5263, then will trade rangebound between 5193 - 5263. 
Weakness will be witnessed upto 5161/5136 if breaks & sustains below support 5193. 

Key Supports : 5193 & 5161.

Resistance : 5263 & 5294. 

Probable Trading Range : 5161-5294 

Regards,
Team Market View Investments. 
Mo : 9987750901. 
Visit www.mktviews-nifty50.blogspot.com
Facebook : www.facebook.com/mktviews. 

Never Forget : There are no Speed Limits on the Road to Excellence !!!

Caveat :
Investing in Stock markets carries high risk and hence Professional should be consulted before taking any investment decision / call. The inputs presented here are for information purpose and are not buy or sell recommendations to any individual or to any groups. 

Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions. 

Mktviews Weekly Nifty Analysis (16/04/2012 - 20/04/2012)

Weak IIP nos, Dissappointing Infosys Q4 results & Poor response to Spainish & Italian Bond Auction has led to broad based selling pressure amidst high volumes & did not allow the index to sustain at higher levels. 

Key indices Nifty & Sensex declined by 2% while Mid-Cap & Small cap stocks lost 2.8% & 0.6% respectively. 

FMCG & healthcare index proved to be contrarian bets as they managed to stay in green with gains of 3.5% & 1.3% respectively. Sectors which contributed to the decline are Capital Goods (-4.2%), Power (2.7%). Metal (-4%) & Oil & Gas (-2%). 

Weaker than expected Feb IIP data as well as Jan IIP data being revised downward to 1% from 6.8% announced a month ago has built in a strong case for a 25 bps rate cut in the forthcoming RBI policy review. No Rate cut or any cut above the quantum of 25 BPS may not be favoured by markets as minimum 25 BPS is essential for the liquidity striven industry whereas a cut above 25 BPS may affect the RBI's strategies to combat Inflation which may be feared to sky-rocket post Fuel price hike if any. 

Disappointing Infosys Results owing to lower than expected guidance for Q1 & FY13 shook the entire sector as shares of Infosys plunging over 10%. 

Fresh Concerns arose on the Euro-Zone front with Italy & Spain getting poor response for their Bond Auction & on rumours of Germany exiting the Euro Zone. 

Even Chinese GDP data which were announced during the week were subdued & added to the pressure on Global Markets. 

Slowing Economic Growth in India, rising Inflationary pressure, increasing Oil import burden & widening current account deficit caused  the rupee to drift to a nearly 3 month low. 

Key events scheduled next week are Inflation nos to be announced on Monday as well as RBI Monetary policy review on Tuesday which along with Q4 earnings are the next major near term triggers. 

Breadth of the market remained negative amidst higher volumes & while FII's & DII's continued to remain net sellers during the week. 

PCR-OI has decreased from 1.21 to 1.09  levels with huge additions in 5200 to 5400 Calls & even 4900 puts witnessing huge activity. 

There has been an increase in OI in Nifty Futures in falling market with heavy volumes which indicates the weakness prevailing on the bourses.  

Technically, Nifty Futures are forming lower Top & Lower bottoms. Distribution patterns are witnessed at all higher levels with all pullbacks being embraced with huge selling pressure on all rises. 

Post basket selling on Friday leading the index to plummet over 100 Nifty points in a matter of 15 minutes, 

Now Nifty Futures faces crucial resistance @ 5315-5335. 

Any Upside upto 5430/5510 would be possible only if Nifty Futures cross & sustain above 5335. 

Till Nifty Futures does not manage to cross & sustain above 5335, it would trade in the range 5136-5335. 

Crucial Support now lies @ 5136-5156. 

Incase Nifty Fut breaks & sustains below 5136, fresh selling would emerge which would lead the index to test lower levels of 5047 & 4968. 

Regards,
Team Market View Investments.
9987750901.
Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.

Mktviews Daily Nifty View 13/04/2012

Markets have opened on a Flattish to Positive Note following positive global peers. But Gains are a bit subdued owing to shocking Infosys results. 

Post positive opening, Now Till Nifty Fut holds 5278, Nifty fut can move up maximum till 5336-5349 area where it will face cluster of resistances. Further upside upto 5378/5423 only if crosses & sustains abv 5349. 
If does not cross 5349, then will be trade rangebound between 5278 - 5349. Weakness will be witnessed upto 5235/5219 if breaks & sustains below 5278. 

Key Supports : 5278 & 5245. 

Resistance : 5349 & 5378. 

Probable Trading Range : 5245-5378. 

 

Regards,
Team Market View Investments. 
Mo : 9987750901. 
Visit www.mktviews-nifty50.blogspot.com
Facebook : www.facebook.com/mktviews. 

Never Forget : There are no Speed Limits on the Road to Excellence !!!

Nifty Trade (09/04/2012)

Short Nifty @ 5294 SL 5314 Tgt 5260, 5210.


Disclaimer Applies. 

Mktviews Weekly Nifty Analysis (09/04/2012 - 13/04/2012)

Markets are crucially poised after closing mildly positive on weekly basis post range bound trading ruled by high volatility in a 3-day truncated trading week. 

Key indices advanced a meagre 0.5% amid low trading volumes. Mid-Cap & Small-Cap Stocks remained the flavours of the market with both outperforming the benchmark indices by registering gains of 3.25% & 2% respectively. Amongst the large-cap, key gainers were ONGC, NTPC & Bhel while those dragging the markets were JSPL, Bharti Airtel & Hindustan Unilever. 

Global Markets traded range bound with a negative bias following release of minutes of the US FED's latest monetary policy meeting which seemed to indicate that majority of FED's members were not keep to initiate another round of quantitative easing amid signs of improvement & recovery in the US economy. 

Commencement of Q4FY12 corporate results would be a key trigger going forward & focus would be on guidance provided by management for FY13 to gauge the earnings outlook. IT bellwether Infosys would flag-off the result season on Friday, 13 April 2012. 

On the macro front, IIP data would be announced on Thursday for the month of February 2012. 

For the month of January 2012, IIP grew by 6.8%. 

Also on Friday WPI Inflation data for the month of March 2012 would be unveiled. 

Data on Industrial Production for Feb 2012 as well as Inflation for March 2012 would provide cues on RBI's likely policy stance at monetary policy review for 2012-2013 scheduled on 17th April 2012. 

Nifty OI PCR has risen to 1.21 from 1.1 levels week earlier while Nifty Futures premium has shrinked to 22 points against 38 points points vs Spot compared to week earlier. 

Currently, Markets are in an consolidating phase & every attempt of pullback above 5400 levels are being embraced with bouts of selling pressure on rises. 

As the upmove from 5200 levels to 5400 levels post F&O expiry on 29th March is on the back of tepid volumes & unless Nifty Futures manages to cross & sustain above 5425, Nifty Futures could retest the support zone of 5184-5192. 

Only if 5425 is crossed & sustained with huge volumes, further pullback upto 5540/5635 would be witnessed. 

5184-5192 would act as a strong support zone. Any decisive breach of 5184 with volumes would result in capitulation upto 5056/4937 levels.  

Dear Members,

You can now receive a copy of daily Nifty View directly in your Email Inbox by clicking on the following link : 

http://in.groups.yahoo.com/group/mktviews/ 

Also Track us on Facebook : 

http://www.facebook.com/mktviews 

For Live Support, You can even talk to us online at : marketview@ymail.com

Regards,
Team Market View Investments. 
Mo : 9987750901. 
Visit www.mktviews-nifty50.blogspot.com
Facebook : www.facebook.com/mktviews. 

Never Forget : There are no Speed Limits on the Road to Excellence !!!

Caveat :
Investing in Stock markets carries high risk and hence Professional should be consulted before taking any investment decision / call. The inputs presented here are for information purpose and are not buy or sell recommendations to any individual or to any groups. 

Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.