Markets have gained strength for the 3rd consecutive week & gained momentum in the initial part of the week on the back of Inflation hitting 32 month lows, Encouraging excise & service tax collections but have got pegged back due to Disappointing export-import data, Release of the controversial CAG reports in the parliament & Rising crude prices which have crossed 115$ per barrel.
Key benchmark indices Nifty & Sensex inched by 0.8% each for the week while BSE Small Cap & Mid-Cap indices slightly out- performed their benchmark by rising 1% each.
Sector-Wise Oil & Gas led by Reliance & Auto sectors registered highest gains to the tune of 1.8-2.5% followed by Capital Goods & IT which gained by 1.3% each.
Banking Sector still continued to under perform compared to other sectors as it could manage to gain only 0.6%.
Power & Metal Sector were the highest losers owing to selling witnessed on A/c of the controversial CAG reports placed in the Parliament.
Controversial CAG reports on Faulty Coal Allocation were tabled in the Parliament & could created a lot of turbulence in the Equity Markets as well as within the Government on a/c of political backlash & India Inc too.
According to CAG report, financial benefit accrued to private companies due to non-transparent allocation instead of auction of coal blocks was pegged at Rs 1.86 lakh crore. Major Companies amongst those 25 named are Reliance Power, Essar Power, Hindalco, Tata Power, Tata Steel & Jindal Steel and Power.
This has once again casted doubts on the credibility of the Government Functioning which has already been dented to a great extent by the 2G Telecom scam.
July Inflation numbers have surprisingly hit a 32 Month Lows of 6.87% on account of lower Fuel & Naphtha prices due to lower crude prices in July.
Though this fall in Inflation reading is welcome & has also raised hopes of a possible rate cut by RBI at its next month's policy meet, RBI would most likely wait & watch for the August Inflation numbers which would spike up in the backdrop of weaker monsoon leading to a drought-like situation & rising crude prices.
RBI is scheduled to undertake its mid-quarter monetary policy review on September 17.
Trade Data announced last week has been disappointing as India's exports were down 14.8% in July while imports rose by 7.6% leading to a higher trade deficit.
Meanwhile PM's Economic Advisory council (EAC) cut its FY13 GDP growth forecast to 6.7% from its earlier forecast of 7.5-8% & has even raised its Inflation projection upwards to 6.5-7% from 5-6%.
Capital Market regulator SEBI has unleashed a slew of long term comprehensive reformist measures to revamp the Primary Market & boost the growth of Mutual Fund Industry.
SEBI has approved E-IPO procedure for electronic bidding on Public offers & have ensured a minimum lot of shares for retail investors in IPO for increased participation from retail segment.
On the Derivatives front,
Nifty PCR OI has increased from 1.17 to 1.18.
Good amount of unwinding was witnessed in 5200 & 5400 Calls while considerable additions was visible in 5500 Calls which has the Highest Open Interest built-up.
Significant OI built up has been witnessed in 5300 & 5400 Puts suggesting a range of 5289-5469 for Nifty Futures in the coming week.
Going Forward,
Nifty futures may face stiff resistance around 5449-5469 zone as it is 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire fall from 6349 to 4538 and
78.3% retracement of the high of 5632 on 22nd Feb 2012 & Low of 4760 on 4th June 2012.
If Nifty Futures could not cross & sustain above the earlier mentioned resistance zone of 5449-5469, then this current upmove could halt temporarily & Markets could once again retest support zone 5289-5305 and trade in a range of 5289-5469.
Only on decisive cross-over of 5469 with volumes, this current rally could get further momentum & can go all the way upto 5590/5650 area.
But If 5289 is broken with volumes, panic selling upto 5210 & 5148 will be on the cards.
Regards,
Team Market View Investments.
Mo : 9987750901.
Visit www.mktviews-nifty50.blogspot.com
Facebook : www.facebook.com/mktviews.
Team Market View Investments.
Mo : 9987750901.
Visit www.mktviews-nifty50.blogspot.com
Facebook : www.facebook.com/mktviews.
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Investing in Stock markets carries high risk and hence Professional should be consulted before taking any investment decision / call. The inputs presented here are for information purpose and are not buy or sell recommendations to any individual or to any groups.
Investing in Stock markets carries high risk and hence Professional should be consulted before taking any investment decision / call. The inputs presented here are for information purpose and are not buy or sell recommendations to any individual or to any groups.
Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.
