Mktviews Weekly Techno-Funda Analysis (16/07/2012 - 20/07/2012)

Last week, Market sentiment got dampened following disappointing earnings guidance by Infosys, downward revision of April IIP data & fragile global markets causing Nifty to shed 1.6% & close almost at its weekly lows. 

Key Benchmark indices Nifty & Sensex declined by 1.7% each while BSE Small-Cap & Mid-Cap indices fell by 1.25% & 1% respectively. 

All Sectorial indices ended in Red with the highest damage caused to IT sector declining by 5% due to Infosys which witnessed a 10% cut. 

Metal, Auto & Power sectors also followed suit by declining anywhere between 2-3%. 

Though these are early days as the earnings season has just been flagged off but it has been mixed amongst those announced so far. 

Infosys disappointed the street while TCS & HDFC siblings continued to announce robust numbers. 

It seems Infosys is fast losing its IT bellwether status as continouosly from the last 3 quarters, it is delivering weak numbers way lower than the guidance given earlier. 

In the coming week, Nifty heavy-weights Reliance Industries, Axis bank, Hero Motor corp, Kotak Bank, Bajaj Auto, Dr Reddy's labs would be announcing their quarterly results & it would have an significant impact on the market sentiment. 

IIP has grown by 2.4% in May 2012 compared to consensus of 1.7%. However sell-off was witnessed post announcement of the data as April data was revised downwards from +0.1 to -0.9%. 

Weak progress of Monsoon till Mid-July is dampening the market sentiment to a great extent as it is leading to a delay in sowing of cash-crops thus signalling a fear of a sporadic increase in Inflation. 

June Monthly Inflation numbers slated to be announced on Monday, 19th July 2012 would be very significant as it could influence RBI's decision on reducing key interest rates in its First Quarter Monetary Policy Review on July 31, 2012. Market Expectations are ranging between 7.4-7.6%. 

Though Central banks around the world have cut interest rates & infused liquidity, it looks difficult for RBI to aggressively cut policy rates considering weak & volatile rupee, rising trajectory of crude prices again & weak progress of Monsoon likely to cause an uptick in Inflation in the months to come. 

Also, High Expectations are set from the Government to announce any meaningful set of reforms to revive the economy post the Presidential Polls. This is what is holding the markets untill now. But incase, the government fails to deliver by announcing any stronger reforms or falls short of expectations, we can expect a sell-off in the markets. 

Lots of promises & announcement are made, but it would be prudent to wait & watch & see wether any concrete action is taken on the grounds. 

Nifty OI PCR has decreased to 1.21 from 1.12 levels with significant OI built up witnessed in 5300-5400 Calls & 5000-5100 Puts. 

On the other hand, slight unwinding is visible in 5200 & 5300 Puts indicating a trading range of 5168-5410. 

Nifty Futures despite having faced selling pressure during last week have still closed at a premium of 13 points against the premium of 10 points to its Spot a week earlier. 

Going Forward, 

Markets seems to have halted its continuous 5-week winning streak & have witnessed selling pressure on rises.

Nifty Futures faces critical resistances around 5380-5410 zone & till the time it is not taken out with volumes, we can expect Nifty Futures to retest 5150-5168 zone again. 

Any pullback upto 5360-5390 zone should be used to reduce/exit longs on rises. 

Upside Momentum upto 5530/5600 can be witnessed only incase of 5410 is crossed with volumes. 

Real panic & price capitulation would set in once we close below strong support zone of 5150. Breach of 5150 could lead the index to drift to lower levels of 5056 & 4937. 

Regards,
Team Market View Investments. 
Mo : 9987750901. 
Visit www.mktviews-nifty50.blogspot.com
Facebook : www.facebook.com/mktviews. 

Never Forget : There are no Speed Limits on the Road to Excellence !!!

Caveat :
Investing in Stock markets carries high risk and hence Professional should be consulted before taking any investment decision / call. The inputs presented here are for information purpose and are not buy or sell recommendations to any individual or to any groups. 

Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.

Mktviews Daily Market View 04/07/2012

Markets have opened on a Positive Note inline with global peers. 
Post positive opening, Nifty fut can move up maximum till critical resistance zone of 5336-5342. 
Further upside upto 5376/5398 only if crosses & sustains abv 5342. 
If does not cross 5342, then will face selling pressure on rises & trade rangebound between 5278 - 5342. 
Weakness will be witnessed upto 5235/5219 if breaks & sustains below 5278. 

Key Supports : 5278 & 5245. 
Resistance : 5342 & 5378. 
Probable Trading Range : 5245-5378. 

Regards, Team Market View Investments. 9987750901.
Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.

Mktviews Fresh nifty View 28 June

Markets have opened in Positive territory & are trading rangebound 5148-5155 after having sustained on the minor morning gains. 

Today is FnO expiry day & hence movements are expected to be extremely choppy & in a very tight range. 

Going forward, 

Nifty Futures (June) have formed a strong support zone @ 5126-5136. 

If holds 5126, we can expect an upmove upto 5187/5209. 

Only on breach & sustaining below 5126, lower levels of 5098/5076 can be witnessed. 

Regards, Team Market View Investments. 9987750901.
Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.

Mktviews Fresh nifty View 27 June

Post Opening, Nifty Futures is trading rangebound between 5145-5160. 
Going forward, 
If 5172-5176 is not crossed, expect lower levels of 5095/5055 to be retested. 
Upside upto 5206/5239 only if 5176 is crossed & sustained with volumes.

Regards, Team Market View Investments. 9987750901.
 Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.

Mktviews Daily Market View 26 June

Markets have opened on a subdued note inline with Asian peers. 
Post opening, till Nifty Futures hold 5078-5084, it can move up maximum till 5132-5138 area. 
Further upside upto 5164/5188 only if crosses & sustains abv 5138. 
If Nifty Futures does not manage to cross 5138 zone, then will face selling pressure on all rises & trade rangebound 5076 - 5138. 
Further Weakness will be witnessed upto 5049/5022 if breaks &sustains below 5076. 

Key Supports : 5076 & 5049. 
Resistance : 5138 & 5176. 
Probable Trading Range : 5049-5176.

Regards, Team Market View Investments. 9987750901.
Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.

Mktviews Daily Market View 25/06/2012

Markets have opened positive & have continued its positive momentum since open. 

In the next 1 hour, a lot of important announcements are expected from the Finance Ministry as well as RBI to prop up the economy. 

Going forward, 

If Nifty Futures does not cross 5216, then will face selling pressure upto 5163 & trade rangebound 5163 - 5216. 
Further Weakness will be witnessed upto 5136/5104 if breaks & sustains below 5163. 
Small pullback upto 5239/5266 only if crosses & sustains abv 5216. 

Key Supports : 5165 & 5138. 
Resistance : 5216 & 5239. 

Probable Trading Range : 5138-5239

 

Regards,
Team Market View Investments. 
Mo : 9987750901. 
Visit www.mktviews-nifty50.blogspot.com
Facebook : www.facebook.com/mktviews. 

Never Forget : There are no Speed Limits on the Road to Excellence !!!

Caveat :
Investing in Stock markets carries high risk and hence Professional should be consulted before taking any investment decision / call. The inputs presented here are for information purpose and are not buy or sell recommendations to any individual or to any groups. 

Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions

Mktviews Weekly Techno-Funda Analysis (25/06/2012 - 29/06/2012)

                                Markets Resilient. Crucial Days ahead !!!!

Markets have displayed commendable resilience this week notwithstanding a plethora of major negative news-flow in last few weeks such as Low GDP growth, weak IIP data, continuous depreciation in rupee, rise in inflation, policy rates held steady by RBI as against hope of a rate cut & revision of India's outlook to negative from stable by 2 major ratings agencies S&P and Fitch. 

Key benchmark indices Nifty & Sensex ended the week on a flattish note while BSE small cap as well as mid-cap index inched higher by approximately 1% each. 

RBI in its monetary policy meet on 18th June 2012 held CRR & Repo rate steady at 4.75% & 8% respectively stating that even though growth has moderated, Inflation still remains above its comfort level & cutting rates further could worsen inflationary pressures. 

It further stated that the Government needs to step in with major structural reforms & slowdown in growth was not as a result of high interest rate but as a result of factors other than that, possibly hinting at Government's policy paralysis. 

After S&P, it is now the turn of FITCH to lower India's outlook to negative from stable i.e its lowest investment grade BBB- rating citing reasons such as stalled reforms, high inflation & limited progress on fiscal consolidation. 

FITCH has also cut credit rating outlook of 11 Financial Institutions from stable to negative. This includes PSU as well as private banks such as Canara Bank, SBI, PNB, Bank of Baroda, Axis Bank, IDBI, IDFC & IRFC. The outlook revision of these financial institutions reflect their close linkages with the sovereign by virtue of their high exposure to domestic counter parties like SEB's & holdings of domestic sovereign debt. 

Rupee is continouosly plumetting to newer historic lows every week. It has touched a new historic low of 57.53 vs US$ & closed at an all time low of 57.12 vs US$. This persisting weakness is due to overall demand pressure for Dollars from OMC's & from corporates who have ECB & FCCB payments due in the near future. 

The only silver-lining can be the softening prices of crude oil which has tumbled from 124$ per barrel in March/April to 89$ per barrel in June. Ideally Equity markets should rally & display a sense of more strength as it augurs well for corporate profitability owing to low input costs. But the continuous fall in rupee has mitigated most of the benefits arising from the fall in crude prices. 

It is important that Rupee forms some sort of a bottom around 57-58 zone because incase it breaches 58 vs US$ & Crude too rebounds from 90$ odd levels, then the entire equation could change & resilience displayed by the markets could end & we can witness an increase in the negative sentiment. 

Statements from the IMD with respect to the progress of Monsoon so far have not been encouraging. The IMD has stated that the monsoon rains in 2012 would be 96% of the long-term average overall , down from its earlier April forecast of 99%. 

Hence market participants would keenly focus on the monsoon trend & statements from IMD on progress of Monsoon as it could help in reviving the economic growth & bring down food inflation under check. 

On the Global Front, 

Greece Elections saw leftists lose out to pro-austerity parties while the FOMC meet in US failed to commit to an aggressive QE3 but extended Operation Twist to end of 2012. 

Manufacturing PMI data for the US, Euro-Zone & China have been disappointing & could be an early indication of a downturn in global growth. 

Market participants would closely focus on key developments regarding the outcome of the crucial EU meet which will be held on 28th & 29th June 2012 to reach a consensus & come out with some concrete remedial measures on the Euro-zone crisis. 

Outlook for the next week : 

Nifty PCR OI has increased from 1.51 to 1.52 levels with highest OI built-up witnessed in 5200 CE & 5000 Puts suggesting a near-term range of 5056-5268. Nifty futures closed at a premium of 5.10 point against the premium of 8.65 points to its spot. Next month future is trading with premium of 25.60 points.

Last Week despite negative news-flows on macro-economic front, Nifty Futures managed to hold 5080-5090 zone & buying support was witnessed from these lower levels.  

Hence If this strong support zone 5056-5063 holds, we can expect this pullback to continue upto 5256-5260. 

Also, Further pullback in Nifty Futures upto 5350/5420 would be witnessed only incase 5260-5268 is crossed & sustained.  

In case it fails to cross & close above 5268, will be in the trading range 5056-5268. 

Once Nifty Futures breaks & closes below 5056, it could drift to lower levels of 4965/4878. 

 

Regards,
Team Market View Investments. 
Mo : 9987750901. 
Visit www.mktviews-nifty50.blogspot.com
Facebook : www.facebook.com/mktviews. 

Never Forget : There are no Speed Limits on the Road to Excellence !!!

Caveat :
Investing in Stock markets carries high risk and hence Professional should be consulted before taking any investment decision / call. The inputs presented here are for information purpose and are not buy or sell recommendations to any individual or to any groups. 

Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.

Mktviews Daily Market View 21 June

Post negative opening, Nifty Futures can move up till 5132-5138 area.
Further upside upto 5174/5198 only if crosses & sustains abv 5138. 
If Nifty Futures does not manage to cross 5138 zone, then will face selling pressure on all rises & trade rangebound 5083 - 5138. 
Further Weakness will be witnessed upto 5051/5023 if breaks & sustains below 5083. 

Key Supports : 5083 & 5051. 

Resistance : 5138 & 5171. 

Probable Trading Range : 5051-5171 

Regards, Team Market View Investments.
9987750901.
Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.

Mktviews Daily Nifty View 20/06/2012

Post flat to positive opening, Nifty Futures can move up till 5142-5156 area. 
Further upside upto 5194/5210 onlyif crosses & sustains abv 5156. 
If Nifty Futures does not manage to cross 5156 zone, then will face selling pressure on all rises & trade rangebound 5093 - 5156. 
Further Weakness will be witnessed upto 5048/5013 if breaks & sustains below 5093. 

Key Supports : 5093 & 5058. 

Resistance : 5156 & 5181. 

Probable Trading Range : 5058-5181 

Regards, Team Market View Investments. 9987750901.
 Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.

Mktviews Daily Market View 18 June

Markets have opened positive & are trading rangebound ahead of RBI's credit policy statement. 
Going Fwd, Nifty fut can move up till 5210-5218 area. 

Further upside upto 5250/5268 only if crosses & sustains abv 5218. 
Hence If does not cross 5218, then will be rangebound between 5153 - 5218. 

Weakness will be witnessed upto 5116/5079 if breaks & sustains below 5153. 

Key Supports : 5153 & 5116. 
Resistance : 5218 & 5248. 
Probable Trading Range : 5116-5248

Regards, Team Market View Investments.
9987750901.

Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.