Markets seems to have halted its current upmove around 5450 levels as it displayed its reluctance to cross & close above it on last 2 days.
On a weekly basis, key indices rose around 1% with small-cap & mid-cap index rising over 3% each. Bankex closed 3% higher while IT & Auto index rose by 2-2.5% and Power as well as Oil & Gas Index rose by 1% each.
Even though markets closed 1% higher than previous week but selling pressure was witnessed from higher levels following disappointing IIP data, slipping of growth forecast to 6.9% v/s 8.4% YoY & which is even lower than Government's own estimated range of 7.25% - 7.25% for FY12 in December 2011.
On the macro front, the government unveils monthly inflation data for Jan 2012 on Tuesday, 14 Feb 2012. Also, this is the last week of the Q3 results calendar & important companies like SBI, SAIL, IOC, Coal India, Rpower, etc would be announcing their results.
As already discussed in Last Week's edition of our Weekly Nifty Analysis, Nifty Futures would face very high resistance around 5435-5455 which is 50% retracement of the entire upmove from 4538 to 6349. It exactly did that & made a high of 5451 & 5443 on Thursday as well as Friday but failed to cross & close abv 5455.
In the last 9 sessions, Markets were making higher top & higher bottom pattern which has broken on Friday with Nifty making a lower top & lower bottom then Thursday's levels. Hence, it seems Nifty Futures may have terminated its current upmove near 5450 & may witness some consolidation with a negative bias as most technical oscillators are still placed in over-bought zone.
Going Forward,
If Nifty Futures does not cross the critical resistance zone of 5440-5460 & even breaks & sustains below 5328, it could witness a minimum fall upto 5168 / 5084.
Only incase Nifty Future crosses & closes above 5460, upmove upto 5590/5650 can be expected.
Till then Nifty Futures may continue to trade in the range 5328-5449.Regards,
Team Market View Investments.
9987750901.
Disclaimer : As equity traders/Advisors We, our relatives and friends may have position in the stocks suggested by us. We are individuals and dont belong to any brokerage house or company. All Recommendations are based on technical and/or fundamental analysis and/or Personal observations. Trading in stock markets involves risk . We give Recommendations, opinions or suggestions with the understanding that readers acting on this information take in to account all risks involved with market. Acting on the basis of views expressed here is the sole responsibility of the reader. No responsibility will be assumed by the authors for the consequences what so ever, resulting out of acting on these recommendations. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change with/without notice depending on the Market Conditions.
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