Mktviews Weekly Nifty Analysis (27/02/2012 - 02/03/2012)

                                                 Markets respects Trend-Line Resistance @ 5650 !! 

  

Selling pressure exactly at trendline resistance zone & lack of buying support at lower levels has currently halted the ongoing 7-week bull-march. 

Major indices Nifty & Sensex declined approx 2.5% compared to last week while Small-Cap & Mid-Cap indices too witnessed a cut of approx 3.5-4%. 

Globally, US markets have displayed strength & Dow Jones has touched 13000 first time since 2008 on the back of improving economic numbers & post Greece securing a $172bn bailout. 

Global crude prices inching up on the back of intensifying geo-political stand-off between Iran & Western Countries is detrimental to the Indian economy as India imports 80% of its Oil Requirements & hence Fiscal Deficit can further widen. 

Going Forward, Markets would take cues from declaration of State Election Results, Union Budget, Annual Monetary Policy, Global Markets & movement of crude prices.

Also, Auto & Cement Sector stocks will be in focus as companies from these 2 sectors would start unveiling their monthly sales data for Feb 2012 from 1 March 2012. 

During the last week, Markets behaved exactly as indicated in the last weekly newsletter. Nifty Futures has reversed exactly from 5650 levels i.e 61.8% retracement levels from 6349 to 4538 & fell upto 5450. Markets witnessed this correction after trading in an over-bought zone & selling pressure was visible admist negative market breadth. 

March Nifty Futures are quoting at a premium of Rs 50-60 in the last 2 days forcing bulls to roll-over less long positions & attracting the bears to short at higher levels to take benefit of the premium. 

Hence We feel that if 5389 holds, Nifty Fut could once again retest 5590-5620 levels before a further slide. Stay Cautious of this upmove till 5620 is not crossed & sustained as it may turn out to be a Pullback. After retesting 5590-5620 levels, Markets could witness a sharp fall upto 5240 levels. 

Going Forward,

If Nifty Futures holds support zone 5389-5395, we could once again retest 5590-5620 levels which is a critical resistance area. 

If crosses & sustains above 5620, upmove upto 5735 & 5850 may be witnessed. 

But If fails to cross & sustain above 5620, would trade rangebound between 5389-5620. 

Only if it breaks & sustains below 5389, correction upto 5310-5240 area will be on the cards. 

Regards,
Team Market View Investments. 
Mo : 9987750901. 
Visit www.mktviews-nifty50.blogspot.com
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